Q1 throttle check, Harley faces the music
Spring is here, bikes are out, trails are getting dusty again — and yet, when it comes to sales numbers, the powersports world is off to a sluggish start in 2025.
According to the latest data from the Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC), total motorcycle and ATV sales dropped 7.8% in Q1 compared to 2024. For an industry that runs on adrenaline and momentum, it’s a noticeable deceleration. However, dealers we spoke with are still confident that the year ahead will not be lost because of a down quarter. Tariffs have impacted buyer confidence, but mainly because of the uncertainty about whether they are on or off. Right now, tariffs are on pause, and shipments are starting to arrive.
What’s selling?
Let’s break it down by category because not everything is slumping equally.
Scooters took the biggest hit, dropping a brutal 35.2% year-over-year.
On-highway motorcycles, the bread and butter for most major OEMs, fell 10.1%.
Dual sports — those street-legal but off-road-capable bikes — slid 15.4%.
Off-highway motorcycles (dirt bikes) bucked the trend and posted a small 1.3% gain. ATV sales rose a modest 3%, which could be tied to their utility appeal.
UTV sales were not reported but are likely in line with ATV trends.
So while most segments are down, there are signs of life in the off-road segment. Utility-focused buyers and die-hards are still out there spending — just not in droves.
What’s driving the dip?
In short: money. High interest rates are still biting, making it tougher for buyers to finance new toys. Even for those who can afford it, the sticker shock combined with economic uncertainty is enough to make some folks hold off until later in the year — or look for pre-owned units.
And then there’s the generational shift. Younger riders aren’t necessarily looking for the same bikes their parents rode. They want lighter, more tech-forward machines — often with lower price tags. And that’s a tricky ask for manufacturers still leaning hard on heavy cruisers or big-ticket touring bikes.
Nowhere is this more obvious than at Harley-Davidson, which held its annual shareholders meeting earlier this month.
CEO Jochen Zeitz, who announced he is retiring this year, stuck to familiar talking points: Harley’s sticking with its long-term plan to focus on premium branding, strong margins, and global expansion. He emphasized that the company isn’t chasing sales volume, but instead prioritizing profitability and brand prestige.
That may sound good on paper, but the numbers tell a more complicated story. U.S. retail sales for Harley were down again in Q1, continuing a years-long struggle to stabilize its core business. And while Harley’s overseas markets are performing a bit better, it’s not enough to fully offset domestic weakness.
What about innovation? That’s been Harley’s wildcard for the past few years — especially with its electric offshoot, LiveWire. Unfortunately, LiveWire still hasn’t become the spark the company hoped for. The next-gen S2 platform has been repeatedly delayed, and while the bikes are stylish and high-performance, they remain niche products with limited market penetration.
Despite the sales dip, one thing is clear: the passion for riding hasn’t gone away. If anything, riders are just being more selective. Many would-be buyers are watching interest rates, checking prices, and browsing used inventory first.
Adventure bikes and off-road models continue to hold their own, with brands like KTM, Yamaha, and Honda still seeing demand for bikes that can do it all. These aren’t your dad’s highway cruisers — these are versatile, lighter machines that appeal to new riders and seasoned vets alike.
And let’s not forget that riding is seasonal. Many dealers expect things to pick up in Q2 and Q3, especially as the weather warms and travel plans ramp up. Summer is always a key test for the industry, and a good riding season could help close the gap.
There are some wildcards that could shake things up as we head into mid-year. First, tariff price hikes could deter riders seeking a new machine, but it could be a boon for pre-owned inventory. Second, any hint of interest rate cuts from the Fed could breathe some life into consumer financing.
And finally, the summer trade shows. We think there will be some big reveals later in the riding season. If any brand can nail the combo of price, performance, and modern appeal, it could grab serious market share in 2025.
