those used to reduce demand only during the peak afternoon and evening hours .
ISO New England anticipates that generators using stored fuels , such as oil and LNG , would operate around the clock during prolonged periods of extremely cold weather . Conservation requests during these periods would be made to extend these fuel supplies until either the weather warms or additional deliveries make it to the region . Rather than moving consumer demand into different parts of the day , the public may be asked to limit their energy use during all hours , perhaps for several days .
Projected winter electricity needs up slightly from last year
ISO New England anticipates demand for electricity will peak at 20,009 megawatts ( MW ) during average winter weather conditions of 10 ° F , and 20,695 MW if temperatures reach below-average conditions of 5 ° F . These projections are both about 2 percent higher than last year ’ s forecasts . New England ’ s all-time winter peak record was set during a January 2004 cold snap when electricity usage reached 22,818 MW .
Winter wholesale prices in New England follow global trends
Higher and volatile fuel costs typically lead to higher and volatile wholesale electricity prices , which , in turn , influence the retail supply rates paid by consumers . Increased global demand for LNG in response to war in Ukraine has created more volatility this winter , leading to higher prices . The impact of these higher wholesale prices on residential electricity supply rates can vary based on a utility ’ s service territory , procurement practices , and state rules .
2022-2023 winter outlook by the numbers
• Winter peak forecast : 20,009 MW under normal weather conditions ; 20,695 MW under below-average conditions
• Last winter ’ s demand peaked at 19,756 MW on January 11 , 2022 , when temperatures averaged 10 ° F
• The all-time winter peak demand is 22,818 MW , set on January 15 , 2004 , during a cold snap
• Resources with a Forward Capacity Market ( FCM ) capacity supply obligation to be available : 30,145 MW
• Total resources , including both FCM obligations and capability without FCM obligations : 34,103 MW ( a generator ’ s maximum possible output may be greater than its FCM obligation )
• Natural-gas-fired generating capacity at risk of not being able to get fuel when needed : more than 4,100 MW
• All-time peak demand : 28,130 MW , on August 2 , 2006
As a key part of its winter operations , ISO New England closely monitors weather forecasts and energy supplies , expected consumer demand , and other variables to identify and communicate potential reliability issues . Each week from December through March , the ISO publishes the results of these analyses in the 21-Day Energy Assessment Forecast and Report — a rolling , three-week outlook of anticipated power system conditions .
The purpose of this sophisticated assessment is to identify potential energy shortfalls while there is time to prevent them or lessen their impact . With up to three weeks ’ notice , the report gives resource owners time to evaluate the status of their fuel supplies and to arrange for replenishment , as needed , or to reschedule
maintenance in order to maximize availability .
Such an early warning would also allow time for coordination among the ISO , the region ’ s utilities , and government officials , especially if conservation is needed .
The assessment examines whether the region ’ s electricity supply could fall below anticipated consumer demand and required operating reserves during any hour in the upcoming three-week period .
The report summarizes the bulk electric system ’ s overall health and risk level , and lists any Energy Alerts or Energy Emergencies :
• An Energy Alert warns of an anticipated energy shortfall in days six to 21 of the forecast period
• An Energy Emergency warns of an anticipated energy shortfall in days one to five of the forecast period The report includes information about when each alert or emergency was declared , and a projection of when it will end . Also included are a series of charts and other information about the variables used in the assessment , such as :
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