ISO New England Reports on Grid Status
ISO New England
New England should have adequate electricity supplies under mild and moderate weather conditions this winter , according to ISO New England , operator of the region ’ s electric grid . Prolonged periods of very cold weather continue to pose power system reliability risks , but ISO New England will use procedures and plans , including a rolling three-week energy supply forecast , with the goal of mitigating these conditions should they materialize .
“ Based on seasonal weather forecasts and information provided by generators about their fuel arrangements , the region ’ s power system is prepared for mild and moderate weather conditions ,” said Gordon van Welie , ISO New England ’ s president and CEO . “ If long periods of severely cold weather develop , we ’ ll lean on our forecasting tools to identify potential problems early enough to take proactive measures , such as calling for increased fuel deliveries or asking for public conservation .”
The ISO does not anticipate calling for controlled power outages this winter , and would resort to this drastic step only to prevent a collapse of the power system that would take days or weeks to repair . In the event controlled power outages are needed , the ISO would coordinate this action with local utilities , which would then take the necessary actions to lower electricity demand in their areas .
Pre-season training , weather forecasts inform system preparation
Each year , planning for the winter season begins months in advance . ISO New England works with generators to understand their fuel procurement plans , while offering a pre-winter training to discuss market and operational changes .
The ISO also consults seasonal weather forecasts . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) is projecting above-average temperatures in New England this winter , though a warmer-than-average season does not eliminate the threat of prolonged stretches of cold weather . Climate change is making weather more volatile and harder to predict , while stimulating more severe weather .
ISO New England also holds pre-winter briefings with the region ’ s utilities and government officials to discuss our expectations for the season and test emergency communication procedures . This year , the ISO hosted a tabletop exercise with these groups to dive deeper into how the region would respond under extreme conditions .
“ Preparing for any season requires coordination ,” van Welie said . “ By working together in advance , the ISO , the utilities , the energy industry , and government officials can ensure we ’ re all on the same page should challenging conditions materialize .”
A rolling 21-day forecast provides visibility , early warning
ISO New England uses sophisticated forecasts to identify potential energy shortfalls while there is time to prevent them or lessen their impact . The ISO routinely monitors weather forecasts and energy supplies , including the availability of pipeline natural gas and expected production from wind and behind-themeter solar resources . In addition to closely monitoring inventories at regional liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) storage facilities , the ISO surveys oil- , coal- , and natural-gas-fired generators to monitor inventories and increase awareness of potential emissions or environmental limitations . The ISO combines this information with a 21-day forecast of consumer demand to assess regional energy supplies . Results of this assessment are published weekly to the ISO website .
By identifying and publicizing possible fuel supply shortfalls weeks in advance , the ISO wants to signal to the region ’ s wholesale energy market participants the need to contract for additional fuel deliveries . The early warning also allows time for coordination among the ISO , the region ’ s utilities , and government officials , especially if public conservation is needed .
Conservation requests are a tool among emergency procedures
ISO New England ’ s system operators have many tools at their disposal if emergency conditions develop . These procedures include importing emergency power from neighboring regions , calling on power system reserves , and asking businesses and residents to voluntarily conserve energy . Only in the most severe events , if conservation and other measures were insufficient to balance energy supply and consumer demand , would the ISO call for controlled power outages .
The value of public conservation has been on display recently in other regions facing power system stress , including in September when a brutal heat wave sent electricity demand to record highs in California . ISO New England ’ s emergency procedures prominently feature public appeals for conservation , though specific requests would likely be different from
12 JANUARY 2023 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com