• Forecasted temperatures and consumer demand for each hour of the 21-day period
• A forecast for how quickly generating capacity for oil-fired resources will fall as they deplete their fuel supplies
• A chart showing the history of aggregated oil inventories at generators in New England for both distillate fuel oil and residual fuel oil
• A table indicating the total oil burned since the last generator survey
The ISO publishes the report to its website weekly during the winter , when concern about energy adequacy is highest , and every two weeks for the rest of the year . When enhanced situational awareness would be required , such as the declaration of an Energy Alert or Energy Emergency , the ISO would publish the report more frequently .
Winter poses unique challenges to New England ’ s power grid . With a limited supply of pipeline natural gas — the region ’ s predominant fuel source for electricity , but also a key fuel for home heating — many generators rely on stored fuels such as oil and LNG to generate electricity during cold snaps .
But these stored fuels can also be in short supply and challenging to replenish , potentially limiting electricity production during periods of extreme cold weather . This was the case during two weeks in December 2017 and January 2018 , which led the ISO to develop the 21-Day Energy Assessment Forecast and Report . In a typical winter , if fuel is readily available for delivery to New England , the forecast ’ s three-week timeframe allows generators to schedule deliveries in order to meet their obligations to supply power .
Meanwhile , under an Energy Alert or Energy Emergency , the ISO and other entities can take actions to mitigate forecasted energy shortfalls . These actions include :
• Enhanced reporting and communication
• Daily fuel inventory surveys , and daily energy assessments
• Requesting generator operation on fuel that is not in short supply
• Appeals for voluntary conservation , including public appeals from the region ’ s governors
In conjunction with the development of the report , the ISO made revisions to Operating Procedure 21 — Operational Surveys , Energy Forecasting & Reporting and Actions During An Energy Emergency ( OP-21 ), including an expanded survey of all New England generating facilities that use natural gas , fuel oil , or coal to generate electricity . The survey enhances the ISO ’ s situational awareness of regional fuel supplies , replenishment strategies , and potential emissions limitations . l FON
Note : This information is reprinted from the ISO New England website . For more information , visit www . iso-ne . com / winter
14 JANUARY 2023 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com