I’ve never been one to lean on superstition. I’ll walk under ladders, spill some salt without tossing a pinch over my shoulder, and I’ve opened my fair share of umbrellas indoors. But there’s one old saying that’s always stuck with me, mainly because it seems to ring true more often than not — “things happen in threes.”
My sister Jenny used to say it all the time, especially when a string of bad news would hit the headlines. She was convinced that when one celebrity passed away, two more would quickly follow. At first, I wrote it off as coincidence, but over the years, it started to seem less like folklore and more like an unfortunate rhythm of life. Most recently, we lost Malcom-Jamal Warner. Then came the news about Ozzy Osbourne. Now, Hulk Hogan. That’s three.
I don’t know what to call it — superstition, pattern recognition, or just the way our brains look for closure — but the idea that bad news travels in threes seems to stick. And it doesn’t just apply to Hollywood. The powersports industry, oddly enough, seems to be caught in a similar pattern lately.
Let’s take a look at the past few quarters.
By most metrics, 2024 ended on a quieter note than expected. While not a total bust, Q4 didn’t give dealers or OEMs much to celebrate. The post-pandemic boom was clearly in the rearview, and the industry started to feel the effects of cooling demand, high interest rates, and tightened consumer spending. That’s one.
Then came Q1 of 2025. Still soft. Inventories in some regions piled up while others faced patchy supply chain delays, especially for in-demand UTVs and on-road bikes. Floor traffic dipped. Financing continued to be a sticking point for many buyers. That’s two.
Now we’re moving through Q2, and the trend hasn’t reversed in any significant way. Sales are still down year-over-year. Pre-orders aren’t exactly surging. And for the first time in a long while, several dealers I’ve spoken with have had to start thinking about long-term holding costs again. That’s three.
Economists often define a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP. It’s a dry, technical definition. But in practical, boots-on-the-showroom-floor terms, three down quarters feels like the powersports equivalent of a downturn — especially when it follows such a strong run in 2020-2022.
The interesting part? Just like the “celebrity death rule,” these economic hiccups tend to cluster in ways that can rattle confidence, regardless of their scale or cause. It’s less about data points and more about perception. And perception, in business, is everything.
That said, not all downturns are created equal. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid freeze, what we’re seeing now is more of a recalibration. It’s the industry coming back down to Earth after a period of outsized demand, when stimulus money, limited entertainment options, and supply shortages created an artificially hot market. Now, things are normalizing — and in some cases, overcorrecting.
Some sectors have been hit harder than others. Sport bikes and side-by-sides, in particular, have seen notable slowdowns. Touring motorcycles are also cooling after a red-hot couple of years. Meanwhile, electric powersports continue to be a mixed bag — full of promise but still struggling with infrastructure and cost challenges. On the other hand, pre-owned inventory has remained relatively stable, with many dealers finding success by focusing on trade-ins, reconditioning, and flexible financing.
So where does the rule of threes go from here? Are we doomed to continue this cycle, or is there hope on the horizon?
The good news is that threes don’t only apply to downturns. In fact, they can just as easily work in the other direction. Three strong product launches. Three consecutive months of improved traffic. Three OEMs stepping up with stronger incentive programs. That’s all it takes to start a recovery narrative.
Momentum, as any seasoned dealer will tell you, is contagious. And just as bad news seems to pile up in short order, so can good news — especially in an industry built on passion, community, and the thrill of the ride.
Many dealers are already adjusting course. They’re doubling down on service and parts sales, investing in rider events and brand-building, and rethinking their approach to F&I to help customers overcome sticker shock in a high-interest environment. Manufacturers are listening too, with some starting to tailor production more carefully to demand, offering refreshed models at competitive price points, and exploring new financing structures to support dealers and end-users alike.
At the same time, macroeconomic signals are beginning to shift. Interest rates may begin to come down by late 2025. Employment remains strong. And while inflation hasn’t disappeared, it’s no longer the dominating force it was a year ago. That could translate into more consumer confidence just in time for the all-important fall and holiday sales season.
So yes, we may be living through a rough patch — a trio of disappointing quarters — but it doesn’t have to become a longer streak.
The trick, as always, is to stay focused, stay adaptive, and remember that just as slumps come in threes, so do turnarounds.
Because if you ask me, we’re about due for one.
Got your own take on where the industry’s headed? Reach out at bbaker@epgacceleration.com. I’d love to hear what your dealership is seeing on the ground.