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mary heating fuel will consume 4 % more heating oil than last winter. Although EIA expects heating oil prices will be 3 % less than last winter in that case, the increase in consumption means heating oil expenditures would be 2 % more than last winter. Conversely, in the warmer case, EIA estimates that heating oil consumption would be 10 % less than last winter and prices 5 % lower, resulting in expenditures decreasing by 15 % from last winter.

Lower heating oil prices reflect lower crude oil prices this winter. However, EIA forecasts this drop in crude oil prices will be partly offset by wider crack spreads for distillate fuel. Crack spreads broadly indicate refiners’ margins and are calculated by subtracting the price of crude oil from the wholesale price of a petroleum product. It is expected that crack spreads

will increase this winter relative to last winter. For consumers, wider refining margins translate to higher prices for petroleum products. l FON

Data source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook Data values: U. S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

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12 NOVEMBER 2025 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www. fueloilnews. com