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EIA Sees Lower Oil Prices in 2026, 2027
The Energy Information Administration forecast that production of petroleum and other liquids will continue to exceed global
STEPHEN BENNETT
demand, and said that it expects Brent crude oil prices to fall from an average of $ 69 per barrel( b) in 2025 to $ 58 / b in 2026 and $ 53 / b in 2027. Crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase, EIA observed.“ Persistently high implied global oil inventory builds in the near-term are putting downward pressure on crude oil prices despite heightened uncertainty around the volume of crude oil exports from Russia and Venezuela.”
Global oil inventories have been growing as OPEC + members have increased their production targets, the EIA said, adding,“ We also expect that countries outside of the OPEC + agreements, especially the South American countries Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, will increase their output this year and next year. This production growth, combined with slower growth in global petroleum demand, has gradually pushed crude oil prices lower since early 2024.” For more, turn to EIA / Fuels News, on page 9.
A SWIPE-FEE RULING IN ILLINOIS The Merchants Payments Coalition welcomed a ruling by a federal judge in favor of Illinois’ ban on swipe fees on sales tax and tips.
“ This is a major victory for merchants, their customers and their employees,” MPC Executive Committee member and National Association of Convenience Stores General Counsel Doug Kantor said.“ Merchants provide a service by collecting taxes and tips that are turned over to the state and to employees, and it’ s unfair to punish them by charging them price-fixed swipe fees for doing that. These fees drive up prices for consumers at a time when affordability is the key issue facing our nation’ s economy.” For more on this, turn to the News section, which begins on page six. And for an in-depth look at how a proposed swipe-fee settlement could affect fuel dealers, see“ About That Proposed Swipe-Fee Settlement,” on page 18 of the February 2025 issue of Fuel Oil News, or check it out at www. fueloilnews. com.
The U. S. Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service released a proposed rule implementing the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit.“ The proposed rule provides much-needed regulatory clarity for the biofuels industry after more than a year of uncertainty and includes a major victory for NEFI and heating fuel marketers,” the National Energy & Fuels Institute said in its newsletter. NEFI President and CEO Jim Collura said,“ This proposed rule is a significant step forward and should help restore confidence in the biofuels and downstream wholesale, retail, and consumer markets after a difficult transition period. The 45Z credit is vastly improved from what was originally enacted in 2022 and we are optimistic it will support renewed growth in biofuels production and adoption.” The proposed rule is subject to a 60-day public comment period closing April 6, 2026. Treasury will host a public hearing on May 28, 2026, at 10:00 a. m. ET. NEFI says it will submit formal comments and participate in the hearing. l FON
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4 MARCH 2026 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www. fueloilnews. com
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