lion b / d by 4Q26 because of decreasing active drilling rigs and declining oil prices. Last month, active rigs decreased by much more than we had expected in our May STEO, based on data from Baker Hughes. With fewer active drilling rigs, we forecast U. S. operators will drill and complete fewer wells through 2026. On an annual basis, we now forecast crude oil production will average a bit more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a bit less than 13.4 million b / d in 2026.
Global oil prices. We expect rising global oil inventories will drive crude oil prices lower over the forecast period. The Brent
crude oil spot price fell for the fourth consecutive month in May, averaging $ 64 per barrel( b), down $ 4 / b from April. We forecast that the Brent price will fall to an average of $ 61 / b by the end of this year and average $ 59 / b in 2026.
U. S. retail gasoline prices. Lower crude oil prices result in lower retail gasoline prices in our forecast. Regular grade retail gasoline prices in our forecast average $ 3.14 per gallon in 3Q25, 7 % less than the same time last year. We expect that retail gasoline prices will decrease across the United States through the end of 2026 except for on the West Coast, where refinery capacity
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