reductions are expected to contribute to a 4 % annual price increase next year.
Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub spot price in our forecast averages about $ 4.00 per million British thermal units
( MMBtu) in 2025 and $ 4.90 / MMBtu in 2026, compared with $ 2.20 / MMBtu in 2024. Higher natural gas prices in 2025 and 2026 are the result of strong export growth that persistently outpaces U. S.
Navigating the Sale of Your Business
natural gas production.
Electricity demand. We have increased our forecast for retail electricity sales to better reflect projected demand growth, especially in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas( ERCOT) and PJM independent system operators. The revisions are most notable in the commercial sector, where data centers are an expanding source of demand. We forecast that U. S. commercial electricity sector consumption will grow by 3 % in 2025 and by 5 % in 2026. In the previous STEO, we expected commercial electricity demand would grow by an annual average of 2 % through 2026.
Electricity generation. We forecast that total U. S. electricity generation this summer will increase by 1 %, compared with the summer of 2024, as a result of growing power demand from the commercial and industrial sectors. We expect higher natural gas prices this summer will result in less generation from natural gas-fired power plants compared with last summer, which is expected to be offset by more generation from coal, solar, and hydro.
Release Date: June 10, 2025
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� EIA: PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE DIESEL AND BIODIESEL DECLINED IN 1Q25
U. S. production of renewable diesel and biodiesel fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025( 1Q25) because of uncertainty related to federal biofuel tax credits and negative profit margins. We forecast production of both fuels to increase as the year progresses but biodiesel production to remain less than in 2024.
Renewable diesel and biodiesel are biomass-based diesel fuels that can replace petroleum-based distillate and be used to comply with renewable volume obligations in the Renewable Fuel Standard( RFS) administered by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. l FON
10 JULY 2025 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www. fueloilnews. com