share of U . S . production will continue to increase , accounting for more than 50 % of all U . S . crude oil production in 2026 . The expected production growth in the Permian in 2026 will be offset by contraction in other regions .
Global oil consumption growth in our forecast continues to be less than the pre-pandemic trend . We expect global consumption of liquid fuels to increase by 1.3 million b / d in 2025 and 1.1 million b / d in 2026 , driven by consumption growth in non-OECD countries . Much of our expected growth is in Asia , where India is now the leading source of global oil demand growth in our forecast . Retail gasoline prices in our forecast for 2025 and 2026 are lower compared with 2024 , which largely reflects our forecast of lower crude oil prices . We forecast U . S . gasoline prices in 2025 will average around $ 3.20 per gallon ( gal ), a decrease of more than 10 cents / gal from 2024 . In 2026 , we forecast prices to fall to an annual average $ 3.00 / gal .
The Henry Hub spot price generally rises over the next two years in our forecast . We expect the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub to average $ 3.10 per million British thermal units ( MMBtu ) in 2025 and $ 4.00 / MMBtu in 2026 , up from an historically low average of around $ 2.20 / MMBtu in 2024 . We
FOR
YOUR TANK TRUCK NEEDS , ALEX IS YOUR MAN !
Get a Quote Online !
✓ ✓ ✓
We Service We Repair We Sell
expect wholesale natural gas prices to increase because growth in demand — led by liquefied natural gas exports — outpaces production growth and keeps inventories during the next two years at or below their previous five-year averages during most of the forecast period .
After almost two decades of relatively little change , consumption of electricity grew by 2 % in the United States during 2024 , and we forecast it will continue growing at that rate in 2025 and 2026 . If electricity consumption grows in each of the next two years , it would mark the first three years of consecutive growth since 2005 – 07 , though this result could be affected significantly by weather . The growth in electricity consumption in our forecast is mostly the result of growing power demand in the commercial and industrial sectors .
Solar power supplies most of the increase in U . S . generation in our forecast . We expect to see the addition of 26 gigawatts ( GW ) of new solar capacity in the U . S . electric power sector during 2025 and 22 GW in 2026 . We expect these capacity additions will support the increase of U . S . solar generation by 34 % in 2025 and by 17 % in 2026 . Rising generation from total renewables will cause natural gas generation to decline by 3 % in 2025 and by another 1 % in 2026 . Generation from coal-fired power plants falls by 1 % in 2025 and then rises slightly in 2026 , as coal generators become more competitive with natural gas generators , which are expected to face rising fuel costs . Release Date : Jan . 14 , 2025 l FON
16 FEBRUARY 2025 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com