in this section .
… In collaboration with the Secretaries of Interior and Energy , the Secretary of Defense shall conduct an assessment of the Department of Defense ’ s ability to acquire and transport the energy , electricity , or fuels needed to protect the homeland and to conduct operations abroad , and , within 60 days , shall submit this assessment to the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs . This assessment shall identify specific vulnerabilities , including , but not limited to , potentially insufficient transportation and refining infrastructure across the Nation , with a focus on such vulnerabilities within the Northeast and West Coast regions of the United States . The assessment shall also identify and recommend the requisite authorities and resources to remedy such vulnerabilities , consistent with applicable law .”
� EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook ( STEO ) is the first to include forecasts for 2026 . Macroeconomic assumptions are a key driver in the forecast . The forecast assumes U . S . GDP will grow by 2 % in both 2025 and 2026 . Expect downward oil price pressures over much of the next two years , as we expect that global oil production will grow more than global oil demand . We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average $ 74 per barrel ( b ) in 2025 , 8 % less than in 2024 , and then continue fall another 11 % to $ 66 / b in 2026 .
Global oil production . The unwinding of OPEC + production cuts and strong growth in oil production outside of OPEC + results in global oil production growing in our forecast . We expect global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day ( b / d ) in 2025 and 1.5 million b / d in 2026 . Although we forecast OPEC + will increase production , we expect the group will produce less crude oil than stated in its most recent production target in an effort to avoid significant inventory builds . This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia ’ s oil sector on January 10 , which have the potential to reduce Russia ’ s oil exports to the global market .
After reaching an annual record of 13.2 million b / d in 2024 , we forecast U . S . crude oil production will increase to 13.5 million b / d this year . We expect crude oil production to grow less than 1 % in 2026 , averaging 13.6 million b / d as operators slow activity due to price pressures . WTI prices average $ 62 per barrel in 2026 in our forecast , down from $ 70 per barrel in 2025 . The Permian region ’ s
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