emissions will rise by 1.8 % in 2022 and by 0.5 % in 2023 . Even with growth over the next two years , forecast CO2 emissions in 2023 are 3.4 % lower than 2019 levels . Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather , economic growth , energy prices , and fuel mix .
Release Date : Jan . 11 , 2022
EIA EXPECTS RISE IN ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE
In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook , we forecast that U . S . energy-related carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) emissions will increase in both 2022 and 2023 but remain below 2019 levels . In 2020 , U . S . energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 11 % as energy use declined during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic . As the U . S . economy began to return to pre-COVID activity , CO2 emissions increased by an estimated 6 % in 2021 . We expect increasing economic activity , along with other factors , will result in those emissions increasing by another 2 % in 2022 and remaining virtually flat in 2023 .
We forecast that , by 2023 , U . S . energyrelated CO2 emissions will total 4,971 million metric tons ( MMmt )— still 3 % below the 5,144 MMmt of CO2 emissions generated in 2019 and 17 % below the peak level of 6,016 MMmt in 2007 .
U . S . petroleum-related CO2 emissions increased 8 % in 2021 , and we forecast that they will increase by another 5 % in 2022 and an additional 1 % in 2023 as travel activity continues to increase . We forecast that in 2022 , the number of vehicle miles traveled in the United States , which affects motor gasoline and diesel consumption , will return to 2019 levels and that air travel
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