in 2022 and 34 % in 2023 . Our forecast for the natural gas share as a generation fuel declines primarily as a result of increased generation from new renewable energy generating capacity . Coal ’ s average generation share rose to 23 % in 2021 as a result of higher natural gas prices , but we expect it to decline slightly over the next two years , averaging near 22 % in 2022 and 2023 . We expect the nuclear share of generation will remain near 20 % over the next two years . We expect electricity-generating capacity from renewable energy sources to continue to grow in 2022 and 2023 . Our forecast includes both wind and solar capacity growth , with solar capacity growing at a faster rate . The extreme drought conditions in the West may moderate somewhat in the next year , and we forecast that the share of U . S . generation from hydropower will rise from 6 % in 2021 to 7 % in 2022 and 2023 .
The U . S . retail electricity price for the residential sector in our forecast averages 14.2 cents per kilowatthour in 2022 , which is 4 % higher than the average retail price in 2021 . Forecast residential prices remain relatively the same in 2023 .
Total energy-related carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) emissions increased by 6.2 % in 2021 as the U . S . economy started to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic . We forecast that
12 FEBRUARY 2022 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com