by Kyle Swartz
A short drive from Disney, in sun-soaked Orlando, control state staff and alcohol industry members converged upon the Gaylord Palms this past May for the 2025 NABCA Annual Conference.
The yearly event came as the industry remains in a period of transition. Everyone knows that sales, in general, were flat or down in 2023-24. The categories that do show growth are taking customers down some unusual aisles in stores: canned cocktails, THC drinks, top-shelf tequilas.
These trends were much on the mind of attendees and speakers alike, along with the ever-present, on-and-off again threat of tariffs.
And yet, despite a year defined by headwinds, NABCA Annual 2025 stood out for spicing up the agenda with entertaining sessions.
The third day, which memorably opened with a full orchestra, included a humorous, two-part presentation based on comments from attendees of past conferences. “Every year we do a survey after the conference for feedback,” said NABCA President & CEO Neal Insley, “and one thing we always get is, ‘Can we look at different ways to present the material?’”
The result was Lights, Camera, Listing: A series of sketches, scripted and improvisational, that skewered how the listing process occurs for new products looking to make the shelves in control state stores. NABCA members and friends played the parts of product founders, marketers, brokers, salespeople and executives, along with the decision-makers working for a mythical 19th control jurisdiction.
A pair of make-believe brands applied for listing: a prickly pear-flavored tequila whose unpronounceable name translated to either “Gold of the Desert” or “Dessert,” and a poorly planned moonshine straight out of the famous distilling hotspot of Connecticut. (For the record, as a Nutmegger myself, Connecticut actually boasts two successful moonshine producers, thank you very much.)
What followed was funny but illuminating. In scenes of deliberate parody, but also strangely realistic, like something out of “Veep” or “Parks and Recreation,” caricatures of industry personnel demonstrated why certain listings do and, in particular, do not succeed. Greenwich Moonshine suffered from a lack of planning, resources and realistic forecast, to say nothing of its comically inauthentic background. (Perfectly cast as its pitchman was NABCA COO David Jackson, whose Australian accent did not quite sound New England.) Also, apparently the spirit tasted terrible. “If this is going to be successful, we don’t want to sample it,” joked one executive. “We’ve got to keep this liquid away from lips,” quipped another.
The unsayable tequila did work, however, for all the reasons that the moonshine failed. Whereas Jackson’s character launched his brand “because he felt like it,” with funding from a brother-in-law who may or may not be incarcerated, the tequila came from a real company with real legwork put into trends, marketing support, financial backing and a potential rollout. Also, the salespeople bribed everybody with donuts.
“The suppliers and brokers in these scenes are purposely depicted as being on opposite ends of the spectrum,” explained narrator Rick Przebieda, control state veteran. “The point is there is plenty of space in between to create effective decisions.”
One more thing mentioned repeatedly, if not indiscreetly, during the performances: It always helps to use NABCA data when pitching to control states.
Later, incoming Chair Kathie Durbin opened day four with remarks. “The alcohol industry is not just about products but also people,” she said. “It’s about building trust, building loyalty and creating moments. Together we can rise and continue to raise the bar together. I look forward to working with all of you this year.”
These words served as a proper intro to the rest of the day’s panels, which focused on growth and the challenges ahead. Futurist Nikki Greenberg delved into Gen Z trends, a group whose drinking habits, or lack thereof, have many in the industry feeling anxious. Greenberg’s data reflected this fear.
“Sixty-one percent of Gen Z said that they plan on drinking less in 2025, which is a 53% increase, year over year,” she said. “Forty-eight percent of Gen Z is diagnosed with anxiety, PTSD or depression, and of those people, 60% are taking medication, which does not mix well with alcohol.”
“Sixty-nine percent of Gen Z prefer cannabis to alcohol,” she added, “and 33% of Gen Z are using weed regularly. This represents a direct competitor to alcohol.”
Greenberg further described Gen Z’s habit of “zebra striping.” This trendy industry term is for when a consumer switches back and forth between alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages in a single occasion, like a zebra’s alternating stripes.
“Gen Z is sober curious, climate-conscious, prioritizes wellness, expects personalization, shares everything online, and is influenced by influencers,” Greenberg said. “Forty percent of Gen Z said that they recently bought a nonalcoholic drink because they were influenced by an influencer. Gen Z is five times more likely to do their buying or be influenced into buying on social media.”
Greenberg mentioned the soft drink brand Olipop as a nonalcoholic product that understands and has tapped into Gen Z trends. Sales for this beverage have increased magnitudes in recent years, as Olipop has positioned itself as a healthier alternative to traditional soda, focusing on gut health and probiotics. And the brand also has fantastic social media.
“Fifty-two percent of Gen Z reports feeling more like themselves online than in the real world,” Greenberg said. “Gen Z spends 10 hours a day on their devices, including two to three hours on social media.”
How are the alcohol producers handling this generation?
“It’s easy to find a lot of data that [Gen Z] is drinking less and is more conservative” with alcohol, said Melanie Batchelor, Managing Director of Campari America, during the C-suite closing panel, “C into the Future.” “But we don’t know fully yet what trends are cyclical versus what are structural. So we don’t have as much doom and gloom. But there is a consumer shift, but that happens all the time in this industry.”
Batchelor recalled talking with industry legend Jimmy Russell, Master Distiller of Campari’s Wild Turkey Distillery, about how he couldn’t give bourbon away in the ‘80s and ‘90s. Now, Russell is a celebrity, and Wild Turkey brands are coveted premium products.
“Trends come and go,” Batchelor said, “and it’s all about how you adapt.” Accordingly, Campari recently launched in the American market Crodino, a nonalcoholic spritz that has enjoyed success in Europe since the 1960s.
Batchelor further recalled a recent trip to Texas, where she attended a college football game. Surrounded by a stadium full of Gen Z, she observed how they were hardly avoiding alcohol.
“I urge my colleagues to get out of the office and spend time with the consumer,” she said.
Along those lines, Batchelor brought up that another trend among Gen Z is higher-ABV beverages. “We’re not putting all of that generation into one bucket, but recognizing microtrends within them,” she said.
Echoing her sentiments was fellow panelist Matt Deegan, SVP and COO for Proximo. “It’s not the dark days,” he said. “There’s still a lot of runway in front of distilled spirits,” as long as companies meet consumers where they are.
“There’s regional opportunities in every state,” he continued. “Gone are the days of peanut butter marketing,” spreading out the same strategy across the entire country. “If you don’t treat every state like its own country, then I feel that you’re missing out on consumers,” he added.
THC beverages came up as a topic. “We believe that mood modulation, in whatever form, is here to stay,” Deegan said. “We think the THC beverage space is going to change the landscape.”
“We believe it is going to challenge for a share of wallet and a share of throat,” he added. “We need to get into it [as a company], and it’s something that we surely will get into.”
Deegan expressed concerns about this emerging market that are shared by many industry members. One, these products exist within a loophole in the 2018 federal Farm Bill, a grey area that Congress could close at any time. And two, the milligram doses of THC are all over the map, ranging from a manageable 2.5 mg to an eye-popping potent 50 mg. (During a work road trip across the Midwest this past fall, this writer learned that 50-mg THC drinks are difficult to keep in stock, because they sell well to a small but loyal consumer base.)
“We believe that 2.5 to 5 milligrams makes more sense for these beverages, because then it makes them sessionable,” Deegan said.
Trendy GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic are another common topic at industry conferences these days, as their users typically drink much less. Are alcohol producers concerned?
“The data is there: this is definitely a headwind for the industry,” Batchelor said. “But it’s still a little unknown. It’s a question mark, but a concern.”
Deegan also expressed concern with caution. “I think our relationship can still exist with GLP-1 users,” he said, “but it represents a change of beverage preference for them. It’s something we’re closely monitoring.”