Fuel Oil News October 2024 | Page 11

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Biomass-based diesel products are making up an increasing share of the total distillate fuel oil consumed in the United States . Beginning this month , we will publish forecasts for several new series that better capture how biofuels are being consumed and the share of total distillate fuel oil they account for . We expect that although U . S . total distillate fuel oil consumption will fall slightly this year to average 4.1 million barrels per day ( b / d ), biofuels will account for 9 % ( 360,000 b / d ) of that consumption , up from 8 % last year and 5 % in 2022 .

• New propane retail price data . Also starting this month , we will be publishing monthly retail propane price forecasts by region . In our forecast , the U . S . average retail propane price for the upcoming heating season ( November – March ) averages $ 2.50 per gallon ( gal ), which would be unchanged from last winter . Prices for this winter range from an average of $ 3.35 / gal on the East Coast to $ 2.00 / gal in the Midwest , both of which are similar to last winter .

• Crude oil prices . Despite a drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to $ 73 per barrel ( b ) on September 6 , we expect ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories will push prices back above $ 80 / b this month . More oil will be taken out of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2024 ( 4Q24 ) that we previously expected because OPEC + announced that they will delay production increases until December . Those increases had been set to start in October . Although market concerns over economic and oil demand growth , particularly in China , have increased , causing oil prices to fall , OPEC + production cuts mean less oil is being produced globally than is being consumed . We expect the Brent crude oil spot price to average $ 82 / b in 4Q24 and average $ 84 / b in 2025 .

• Natural gas prices . We forecast natural gas prices will remain relatively flat in the upcoming shoulder season during September and October before generally rising in 2025 . Price increases in 2025 reflect U . S . natural gas production that does not keep pace with growth in U . S . liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) exports . We expect the Henry Hub spot price will rise from less than $ 2.00 per million British thermal units ( MMBtu ) in August to around $ 3.10 / MMBtu next year .

• Electricity generation . A hot start to the summer has contributed to rising electricity demand this year , which is spurring more electricity generation . We expect that U . S . electricity generators will produce 3 % more electric power this year than they did in 2023 . Most of this increase in generation is coming from solar power , but a significant amount is also coming from natural gas .

• Solar generation . Significant capacity expansions are supporting the increase in solar generation . Solar accounted for 59 % of U . S . generating capacity additions in the first half of 2024 , an increase that was supported by the development of new battery storage capacity . We expect the largest gains in solar generation in 2024 in Texas ( 16 billion kilowatthours [ BkWh ]) and in California ( 9 BkWh ).

Release Date : Sep . 10 , 2024 | Forecast Completed : Sep . 5 , 2024 U . S . Energy Information Administration

EIA : RENEWABLE DIESEL IMPORTS INCREASED IN EARLY 2024

In the first five months of 2024 , U . S . imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,000 barrels per day ( b / d ), approaching the monthly record set in May 2023 . Most of the imports ( 94 %) were destined for the U . S . West Coast , where most of the country ’ s renewable diesel is consumed . All U . S . imports came from Neste ’ s plants in Singapore and Rotterdam .

Renewable diesel is a transportation and heating fuel that is chemically equivalent to petroleum-based distillate fuel but is produced using fats , oils , or greases rather than petroleum . Because California , Oregon , and Washington are the only states with active clean fuel programs that incentivize the consumption of renewable diesel beyond the incentives provided by federal policies , renewable diesel is primarily consumed on the West Coast . The United States imported 29 % more renewable diesel during

U . S . imports of renewable diesel ( Jan 2013 – May 2024 ) thousand barrels per day

40

35 30 25 20 15 10 5

annual average

monthly average

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