SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Forecast overview
Global liquid fuels production . On April 3 , OPEC and partner countries announced they would cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day ( b / d ) through the end of 2023 . Our March STEO accounted for some declines in OPEC production in the coming months . However , as a result of the announcement , we reduced our forecast of OPEC production by 0.5 million b / d for the rest of 2023 . Overall , we expect less global liquid fuels production this year than in last month ’ s STEO . However , less production from OPEC was partly offset by a 0.3 million b / d increase in our forecast for Russia ’ s liquid fuels production over the rest of this year .
Crude oil prices . The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $ 85 per barrel ( b ) in 2023 , up $ 2 / b from last month ’ s forecast . The higher price forecast reflects a forecast for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption . Despite our higher price forecast , recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast , which has the potential to result in lower oil prices .
U . S . gasoline prices . We forecast retail gasoline prices will peak between $ 3.50 per gallon ( gal ) and $ 3.60 / gal in June and average about $ 3.50 / gal throughout the summer season ( April through September ). This month we will release our inaugural Perspectives supplement , which discusses alternative scenarios for summer gasoline prices and how they affect our estimates of consumer spending .
Natural gas storage . Mild winter weather in the first quarter of 2023 ( 1Q23 ) resulted in natural gas inventories ending the withdrawal season ( November – March ) 19 % higher than the five-year ( 2018 – 2022 ) average . We forecast natural gas inventories will end the injection season ( April – October ) at 3.8 trillion cubic feet , 6 % above the five-year average .
Natural gas prices . We forecast that the Henry Hub natural gas
10 MAY 2023 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com