and prices .
Weather outcomes are a key source of uncertainty in our forecasts , so we provide three sets with different weather assumptions . Retail energy prices — especially for propane and heating oil — are sensitive to actual weather and the resulting effects on energy demand , supply , and wholesale prices .
Residential propane and heating oil expenditures tend to have wider ranges of uncertainty in our forecasts . By comparison , natural gas and electricity prices tend to lag changes in wholesale prices because of the nature of utility regulation .
Last month ’ s cold weather increased energy prices and consumption , both of which increased residential energy expenditures . We use population-weighted heating degree days ( HDDs ) as an indicator of heating demand , with more HDDs indicating colder weather . A typical January in the United States has 831 HDDs , based on the average of the previous 10 Januarys . However , January 2025 was much colder , with 927 HDDs .
January ’ s cold weather increased natural gas consumption and resulted in near-record withdrawals of natural gas from storage . Similarly , U . S . propane inventories — which had been relatively full at the beginning of winter — were drawn down as consumption
increased and are now near their previous five-year average . U . S . propane exports are also at record highs , which can also elevate domestic propane prices .
Wholesale natural gas and propane prices increased in late 2024 and continued to increase in January . In our October 2024 forecast , we had expected wholesale natural gas and propane prices to increase during the winter , but the timing and magnitude of actual price increases were faster and greater than initially forecast .
� TRUMP CREATES NATIONAL ENERGY DOMINANCE COUNCIL
An executive order by President Trump established the National Energy Dominance Council within the Office of the President . The Council includes a number of cabinet and subcabinet positions , including the Secretary of Transportation , reports Rick Schweitzer , NEFI Regulatory Counsel , in the NEFI Energy Online News :
“ Focusing on developing the country ’ s natural assets , including crude oil , natural gas , lease condensates , natural gas liquids ,
Selling your heating oil or propane business is a big decision .
Deciding to sell to Star Group ensures that your company ’ s legacy , identity and reputation will be preserved in the community .
As one of the leading heating providers in the country , Star Group is actively searching for full-service oil or propane companies to add to our family .
To arrange a confidential consultation , call 833.506.1805 or scan the code .
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12 MARCH 2025 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com