ity generated from coal falls from 20 % in 2022 to 17 % in 2024 . As the share of coal declines , it will be offset by increases in the share of generation from renewable sources of energy , which rises from 22 % in 2022 to 26 % in 2024 .
U . S . GDP growth . Based on the S & P Global macroeconomic model , we assume U . S . real GDP will contract slightly in the first half of 2023 ( 1H23 ), partly resulting from a decline in residential fixed investment . GDP growth picks up in 2H23 and reaches an annual average of 2.1 % in 2024 . Release Date : Feb . 7 , 2023 | U . S . Energy Information Administration
EIA : FUELS USED TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY ARE CHANGING
The Energy Information Administration expects that new renewables capacity — mostly wind and solar — will reduce electricity generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants in 2023 and 2024 . Renewable generation capacity additions in our STEO are less uncertain than other forecasts because we survey this information monthly . However , the electricity actually generated from both renewable and nonrenewable sources varies based on weather conditions and market dynamics . It ’ s this aspect of our STEO electricity generation forecast where most of the uncertainty lies .
Wind and solar accounted for 14 % of U . S . electricity generation in 2022 . In our February Short-Term Energy Outlook , we forecast that wind and solar will rise slightly , accounting for 16 % of total generation in 2023 and 18 % in 2024 . Electricity generation from coal falls from 20 % in 2022 and to 17 % in both 2023 and 2024 . Natural gas accounted for 39 % of electric power sector electricity generation last year , and we forecast its share to be similar in 2023 then fall to 37 % in 2024 .
Electricity generation from renewable energy sources has been growing steadily in the United States over the past decade . Last year , electric power generation from all types of renewables accounted for nearly one-quarter of total generation by the U . S . electric power sector .
The increase in renewables generation is being driven primarily by investment in new solar and wind generating capacity . The U . S . electric power sector operated about 73 gigawatts ( GW ) of solar photovoltaic ( PV ) capacity at the end of 2022 . Power generators are reporting plans to expand solar capacity by 43 % ( 32 GW ) in 2023 , which would be the largest percentage increase in solar capacity since 2016 . Solar capacity will increase an additional 30 % ( 31 GW ) in 2024 .
We expect U . S . wind capacity to increase 5 % in each of the next two years , 6 GW in 2023 and 7 GW in 2024 . Many solar and wind projects tend to come online in December , so these capacity additions tend to have the most impact on generation in the following year .
14 MARCH 2023 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com