export capacity, but long lead times for adding new export capacity will constrain growth in U. S. LNG exports. Global LNG prices remain elevated as a result of reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with a wide spread between U. S. domestic natural gas prices and international markets.
Natural gas production. U. S. marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 Bcf / d in 1Q26, up 4 % from 1Q25. We expect production to keep rising through 2027, with associated natural gas output increasing as higher crude oil prices support more crude
oil production. Natural gas production growth this year is driven primarily by 6 % growth both in the Permian and Haynesville regions. We increased our forecast of marketed natural gas production by 1 % this year and by 2 % in 2027 compared with last month’ s forecast based on our analysis that shows rising gas-to-oil ratios from many wells in the Permian region.
Electricity consumption. U. S. electricity demand in our forecast rises 1.3 % in 2026, averaging almost 4,250 billion kilowatthours and growing another 3.1 % in 2027. Electricity demand growth is led by growth in the commercial sector, which is expected to outpace residential demand in 2027 for the first time on record. Industrial demand is also increasing, although at a slower pace, further contributing to overall growth.
Electricity prices. Residential electricity prices are expected to increase by 5 % in 2026 and to continue to rise in 2027, although at a slower pace. Prices are rising across the United States, but the largest increases will likely occur in regions along the East Coast.
Electricity generation. Our forecast for utility-scale solar generation in 2026 is 1.4 % higher than in the previous STEO because we revised our estimate of the amount of solar generating capacity that was online at the beginning of this year. l FON 8 RETIREMENT / JUNE 2026 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www. fueloilnews. com