previous five-year average , largely as a result of the colder-thanaverage February temperatures that contributed to a drop in natural gas production . We forecast that inventories will end the 2021 injection season ( end of October ) at 3.6 Tcf , which would be 4 % below the five-year average .
Following a significant weather-related decline in U . S . natural gas production in February , U . S . dry natural gas production rose by 6.0 Bcf / d in March to 92.3 Bcf / d . We expect dry natural gas production will average 92.9 Bcf / d in 2H21 and then rise to 93.9 Bcf / d in 2022 .
We forecast that planned additions to U . S . wind and solar generating capacity in 2021 and 2022 will contribute to rising electricity generation from those sources . We estimate that the U . S . electric power sector added 14.8 gigawatts ( GW ) of new wind capacity in 2020 . We expect 16.0 GW of new wind capacity will come online in 2021 and 5.3 GW in 2022 . Utilityscale solar capacity rose by an estimated 10.5 GW in 2020 . Our forecast for added utility-scale solar capacity is 15.5 GW 2021 and 16.6 GW for 2022 . We expect significant solar capacity additions in Texas during the forecast period . In addition , 4 GW to 5 GW of small-scale solar capacity ( systems less than 1 megawatt ) will come online each year during the 2021 – 22 STEO forecast .
We expect U . S . coal production to total 600 million short tons ( MMst ) in 2021 , which is 61 MMst ( 11 %) more than in 2020 . The increase is driven primarily by rising electricity demand . In 2022 , we expect coal production to grow by an additional 5 MMst ( 1 %).
We expect U . S . coal exports to be about 81 MMst in 2021 , 12 MMst ( 17 %) more than in 2020 . We expect most of this growth to come from rising demand for steam coal in Europe and Asia as increased steel prices during 2021 and 2022 drive exports . Forecast U . S . coal exports in 2022 rise by an additional 12 MMst ( 14 %).
We estimate that U . S . energy-related carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) emissions decreased by 11 % in 2020 as a result of less energy consumption related to reduced economic activity and responses to COVID-19 . In 2021 , we forecast energy-related CO2 emissions will increase about 6 % from the 2020 level as economic activity increases and leads to rising energy use . We also expect energy-related CO2 emissions to rise in 2022 , but by a slower rate of 2 %. We forecast that after declining by 19 % in 2020 , coal-related CO2 emissions will rise by 15 % in 2021 and then decrease by 1 % in 2022 .
Release Date : June 8 , 2021 | Forecast Completed : June 3 , 2021 .
12 JULY / AUGUST 2021 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com