EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Global oil production . Growth in oil production next year will come mostly from non-OPEC countries because of ongoing production restraint on the part of OPEC +. At its December 5 meeting , OPEC + announced that it would delay production increases until April 2025 . Those increases had been set to begin in January 2025 . We forecast that global oil production will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day ( b / d ) in 2025 , and we expect almost 90 % of that growth will come from countries that do not participate in OPEC +.
Global oil prices . We expect the Brent crude oil spot price will remain close to its current level in 2025 , averaging $ 74 per barrel for the year , as oil markets will be relatively balanced on an annual average basis .
U . S . crude oil net imports . Net imports of crude oil in the United States this year have remained close to 2023 volumes with increasing U . S . crude oil production supplying an almost equivalent increase in U . S . refinery runs . We expect U . S . crude oil production will continue increasing in 2025 even as U . S . refiners process less crude oil than they did this year , leading to net imports of crude oil falling by more than 20 % to 1.9 million barrels per day ( b / d ) in 2025 , which would be the least net imports of crude oil in any year since 1971 .
Natural gas storage . Natural gas inventories in our forecast remain above the five-year average ( 2019 – 2023 ) throughout the winter heating season ( November — March ) after ending the injection season 6 % above the five-year average in mid-November . We expect natural gas inventories to total 1,920 billion cubic feet ( Bcf ) at the end of March 2025 , which would be 2 % more than the fiveyear average .
Natural gas prices . Based on our expectation that the storage surplus to the five-year average will narrow over the winter , we forecast the U . S . benchmark Henry Hub spot price will increase from an average of just over $ 2.00 per million British thermal units ( MMBtu ) in November to an average of about $ 3.00 / MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season .
Electricity consumption . We expect U . S . sales of 2 % more electricity this winter compared with last winter . The increase is led by 3 % more sales to residential customers because of colder weather than last winter . Although the winter heating season got off to a warm start in November , overall we expect this winter to be colder than last year , with 6 % more heating degree days .
STEO Release Date : Dec . 10 , 2024
EIA : U . S . CAPACITY TO PRODUCE BIOFUELS INCREASED 7 %
Principal contributor : Chris Buckner Capacity to produce biofuels increased 7 % in the United States during 2023 , reaching 24 billion gallons per year ( gal / y ) at the start of 2024 , led by a 44 % increase in a category we call renewable diesel and other biofuels . Other biofuels includes renewable heating oil , renewable jet fuel ( also known as sustainable aviation fuel ), and renewable naphtha and gasoline .
Given continued state and federal tax incentives , regulatory policies , plant expansions , and projected new plant construction , we expect U . S . biofuels production capacity to continue increasing . Capacity Gains by Fuel
Capacity at U . S . producers of renewable diesel and other biofuels totaled 4.3 billion gal / y in January 2024 , 1.3 billion gallons more per year than in 2023 . Fuel ethanol — primarily produced from corn kernel starch and blended with gasoline — accounts for most of U . S . biofuels production capacity . U . S . fuel ethanol production capacity increased about 2 % between January 2023 and January 2024 , reaching 18.0 billion gal / y . U . S . biodiesel production capacity stayed essentially flat , totaling 2.1 billion gal / y in January 2024 . Biofuel Production Capacity by State
Most U . S . biofuels production capacity is located in Iowa . l FON
Total biofuels production capacity by state as of Jan 1 ( 2024 ) million gallons per year
Iowa Nebraska
Illinois Minnesota
South Dakota
Indiana Louisiana California
Texas North Dakota
Ohio Kansas
Wisconsin Missouri rest of United States
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
10 JANUARY 2025 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com