ISO-NE ’ s 2050 Transmission Study
Cumulative costs to upgrade the transmission system could reach $ 17 billion to reliably serve a 51 GW peak in 2050 , or $ 26 billion to support a 57 GW peak , the ISO ’ s report said . To reach those levels , the region ’ s annual investment over the next 26 years would need to roughly keep pace with or exceed the average spent each year over the past two decades .
The upgrades are needed to avoid overloading transmission lines and transformers as residents increasingly rely on electricity to heat buildings and power vehicles , and as offshore wind facilities and other renewable resources located far from homes and businesses produce a greater share of the region ’ s power . The study did not examine potential costs to upgrade the distribution system .
The study — the first the ISO has undertaken that examines the region ’ s transmission system in detail beyond the traditional 10-year planning horizon — is intended to inform stakeholders of the amount and type of transmission infrastructure necessary to ensure a reliable supply of cost-effective electricity for New England . The report includes sets of potential solutions , or roadmaps , designed to assist stakeholders in their efforts to facilitate the clean energy transition .
The upgrades are needed to avoid overloading trsnsmission lines and transformers as residents increasingly rely on electicity to heat buildings and power vehicles ... additional gigawatt of demand on the system for peaks between 28 GW and 51 GW . But much more investment is required for peaks that are any higher . After 51 GW , the cost doubles to $ 1.5 billion for every additional gigawatt of demand on the system , up to the 57 GW winter peak projected for full electrification of the heating and transportation sectors . The region could arrive at a 6 GW reduction through a significant increase in demand response and energy efficiency programs , through the use of stored fuels for heating on extremely cold days only , or other means discussed in the report .
• Targeting and prioritizing high-likelihood concerns is highly effective . The study identified “ high-likelihood ” transmission system concerns that could appear under a variety of conditions . Projects that address high-likelihood concerns are likely to bring the greatest benefit for the widest range of conditions as the clean energy transition accelerates .
• The region can make incremental upgrades as opportunities arise . The study also identified concerns that could be addressed by rebuilding existing transmission lines with larger conductors , rather than expanding the transmission system into new locations . Limiting new line construction by taking advantage of line rebuilds could minimize costs , especially in densely populated areas in southern New England .
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The ISO began working with the New England States Committee on Electricity ( NESCOE ) two years ago to develop the study ’ s objectives and methodology . The result is a pioneering assessment of how changes to the power grid due to state policies regarding electrification and decarbonization will affect transmission .
“ The 2050 Transmission Study is an unprecedented look at the future of New England ’ s transmission system , and its findings will help stakeholders and the ISO make important decisions about improvements and pathways forward ,” said Robert Ethier , ISO New England ’ s vice president of System Planning . “ The ISO will continue to provide such forwardlooking analyses in its role as the region ’ s Independent System Operator , and we will continue to collaborate with stakeholders working to ensure a smooth , reliable transition to an economy primarily powered by clean energy .”
The report offers several high-level observations about the transmission-related challenges the grid may face in the decades ahead .
• Reducing peak load significantly reduces transmission cost . Upgrades would cost about $ 750 million to support each www . fueloilnews . com | FUEL OIL NEWS | JANUARY 2024 13