New England should have sufficient resources to meet the peak demand for electricity this winter , according to ISO New England , operator of the region ’ s electric grid .

Weather is the largest driver of energy use and resource availability in New England , and ISO New England utilizes a rolling three-week energy supply forecast , incorporating a variety of factors to provide an early warning to the region should energy supplies become constrained .

“ Seeing what ’ s coming is crucial to navigating any potential power system challenges , and our 21-day energy supply forecast is an operational tool that serves this very purpose ,” said Gordon van Welie , president and CEO of ISO New England . “ It gives us situational awareness on energy adequacy over the operating horizon , allowing us to identify potential energy shortfalls while there ’ s still time to prevent them or lessen their impact .”

This winter the ISO does not anticipate calling for controlled power outages , and would resort to this drastic step only to prevent a collapse of the power system that would take days or weeks to repair . In the event controlled power outages are needed , the ISO would coordinate this action with local utilities , which would then take the necessary actions to lower electricity demand in their areas .

Projected winter electricity needs and weather forecasting Winter electricity demand is estimated to peak at 20,269 megawatts ( MW ) during average conditions and 21,032 MW under colder than normal temperatures , a modest increase of 1.3 % from last year ’ s forecasts . New England ’ s all-time winter peak demand reached 22,818 MW in January 2004 . For context , one megawatt ( MW ) of electricity can serve about 750 to 1,000 average homes in New England .

During prolonged periods of extreme cold , ISO New England anticipates that generators would use stored fuels like oil and LNG to operate around the clock . analysis of anticipated power system conditions . The forecast involves collecting data on various factors like weather , availability of pipeline natural gas , and expected production from wind and solar resources .

The goal of the forecast is to provide an early warning of potential energy shortfalls that could impact reliable operation of the regional power grid if stored fuels such as liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) run low , especially during periods when the natural gas pipeline system may be constrained . The advantage of this forecast is that it allows for resource owners to take stock of their resource fuel supplies , reschedule maintenance , or arrange for additional fuel deliveries when possible .

The forecasts are published weekly from December through March to the ISO website .

Conservation requests are a tool inmanaging possible energy shortfalls ISO New England ’ s system operators have multiple tools in case of emergencies , including importing additional power from

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ISO New England closely monitors seasonal weather forecasts . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) is projecting above-normal temperatures in New England this winter , with near-normal precipitation for central and northern New England . While an El Niño weather pattern may suggest warmer temperatures overall this winter , it does not preclude the chance of multiple stretches of cold outbreaks that could stress the region ’ s power system .

A rolling 21-day forecast provides a narrative of system conditions For the past four years , ISO New England has published a comprehensive energy supply outlook that offers a rolling three-week

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