By Michael Devine and Don Farrell

It was only five years ago when Arthur Marin , Executive Director of the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management ( NESCAUM ) addressed the Oilheat Manufacturers Association about the States in the Northeast contemplating policies that would demand drastically reduced carbon emissions from the heating sector . In the years since , many policies have been put in place that require homes to be on a path to significant atmospheric carbon emission reductions .

First among the strategies to eliminate carbon is the removal of on-site combustion for heating and replace it with electric heat pumps . The thinking behind this is that heat pumps can eliminate carbon emissions quickly and completely once the grid is free of carbon-producing electric generation . Much debate has ensued on the efficacy of heat pumps in extremely cold weather , the concerns about the huge increased demand on the grid and the feasibility and speed achieving carbonfree electric generation , as well as the economic consequences of doing so .

The National Oilheat Research Alliance ( NORA ) decided to let good science show whether heat pumps or low-carbon liquid biodiesel is a better and faster reducer of carbon emissions . Thus was born the Green House Gas Calculator , a transparent multi-variable calculator to examine the conversion of existing oil-heated homes to electric heat pumps versus upgrading the liquid-fueled heating appliance while increasing the amount of biodiesel / renewable liquid fuel used by that appliance .

The calculator uses an Excel-based spreadsheet that allows the user to make key input changes to examine the results of different actions and approaches to reduce greenhouse gases . It also shows how macro activities in the background , such as the decarbonization of the electrical grid , impact the results . Additional factors may be added , either in conjunction with NORA or independently . Like most models , this was developed over time with input from many stakeholders . Good modeling practice has been the basis for this open-source Excel Calculator . To ensure the accuracy , the model was reviewed by EarthShift Global CEO & Founder Lise Laurin . Version 7.1 was deemed to “ fairly and accurately present the impact of changes in variables .”

CONNECTICUT USE-CASE

To explain the GHG Calculator and its functions , along with the impact of different variables , this article will use a variety of inputs focused on a Connecticut use-case .

Figure 1 provides the result for the Connecticut use-case and shows the effects of converting all current oil-heated homes to no-carbon liquid solutions by 2050 . This model uses normal 5 % liquid fuel appliance upgrades per year versus all-electric ( heat pump plus resistance backup ) conversions at a rate of 1 % per year . This graphic shows how the high use of biodiesel blending , along with normal appliance upgrades , reduce carbon emission considerably faster and at a much lower cost than does converting to electric heat pumps .

Connecticut has a biodiesel use mandate in place and its effect on carbon emissions can be seen by the lighter green color in Figure 1 . In fact , the mandated levels produce carbon reductions more than three times greater than will heat pumps ( orange ). Additionally ,

Figure 1 : Connecticut use-case results demonstrating the advantages of reducing carbon emissions with biodiesel vs . heat pumps . www . fueloilnews . com | FUEL OIL NEWS | JANUARY 2023 17