2024 and more than 13.4 million b / d in 2025 , both of which would be new records . Production growth continues over the next two years driven by increases in well efficiency . However , growth slows because of fewer active drilling rigs .
Global liquid fuels consumption . We expect growth in global liquid fuels consumption will be lower over the next two years : forecast consumption grows by 1.4 million b / d ( 1.4 %), in 2024 and by 1.2 million b / d ( 1.2 %) in 2025 . Although growth in 2024 and 2025 is less than the 1.9 million b / d growth in 2023 , it is largely consistent with the 1.2 % average annual growth in global liquid fuels consumption over the 20 years from 2004 – 2023 . We attribute the reduction in growth to slowing oil demand growth in China due to stalling GDP growth , increasing vehicle fleet efficiency , and an end to pandemic recovery-related growth in 2023 . Despite lower oil demand growth , global consumption of liquid fuels still reaches a new record of over 103.5 million b / d in 2025 .
Global liquid fuels production . We forecast that global liquid fuels production growth also slows . Production rises by 0.6 million b / d in 2024 , down from 1.7 million b / d of growth in 2023 , as OPEC + continues its policy of production restraint and U . S . tight oil production growth decelerates . In 2025 , we forecast global liquid fuels production will rise by 1.6 million b / d , about 50 % of which is rising OPEC + crude oil production .
Crude oil prices . We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average $ 82 per barrel ( b ) in 2024 , about the same as in 2023 , and then fall to $ 79 / b in 2025 , when we expect production growth will slightly outpace demand growth , allowing inventories to build modestly and place some downward pressure on crude oil prices . Recent developments in the Middle East increase the risk for supply disruptions over the forecast , which could result in higher and more volatile prices we currently forecast .
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12 FEBRUARY 2024 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www . fueloilnews . com