� EIA EXPECTS STABLE BIOFUELS PRODUCTION , CONSUMPTION , TRADE THROUGH 2020
In its February 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook ( STEO ), EIA forecasts that several recent trends in U . S . biofuels markets will continue through 2020 . In the STEO , production of fuel ethanol and net imports of biomass-based diesel stay unchanged , while net exports of fuel ethanol decline modestly . Federal mandates and state programs continue to support biofuel consumption through 2020 , however , biofuels remain a relatively small share of total U . S . liquid transportation fuels supply .
The most common biofuels consumed both domestically and globally are fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel . Fuel ethanol is primarily blended with motor gasoline blendstock in the United States to produce 10 % ethanol blended motor gasoline , or E10 . Biomass-based diesel , which collectively refers to biodiesel and renewable diesel , is typically mixed with ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel at varying percentages .
EIA expects that U . S . fuel ethanol production will remain near current levels , decreasing slightly in 2019 to 1.04 million b / d and increasing to 1.05 million b / d in 2020 . Fuel ethanol production is largely dependent on domestic motor gasoline consumption , which has been relatively stable in recent years , as fuel economy improvements have largely offset increases in population and vehicle miles traveled .
U . S . ethanol exports have accounted for an increasing share of production since 2013 and have contributed to market growth . EIA forecasts net ethanol exports , which reached nearly 110,000 b / d in 2018 , will fall to an average of 90,000 b / d in 2019 and 2020 , driven primarily by the expectation that record levels of ethanol exports to Brazil in early 2018 will not persist .
Biomass-based diesel production — excluding renewable diesel — was about 120,000 b / d in 2018 and grows to 160,000 b / d in 2020 . Total biomass-based diesel consumption will increase from an estimated 134,000 b / d in 2018 to 174,000 b / d in 2020 . Growth in domestic production will continue to be supported by antidumping and countervailing duties placed on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia that went into effect in 2017 . Current import restrictions on these countries will contribute to flat biomass-based diesel net imports through 2020 , with U . S . biomass-based diesel net imports about 70 % lower than the 2016 peak .
Biofuels account for a relatively small share of total transportation fuels , with consumption supported over time by the federal Renewable Fuel Standard as well as state-level biofuel programs . U . S . consumption of motor gasoline was 9.31 million b / d in 2018 , and EIA expects that it will increase by less than 1 % annually to 9.36 million b / d by 2020 .
Of the motor gasoline demand in 2020 , domestic ethanol consumption will contribute about 950,000 b / d , corresponding to a national-level blend rate estimate of 10.2 %. Limited demand and ongoing regulatory and infrastructure hurdles for ethanol blends higher than E10 ( e . g ., E15 , E85 ) and lower-priced petroleum blendstocks restrict higher domestic ethanol consumption rates .
U . S . diesel fuel consumption , which includes biomass-based diesel , is expected to increase from 3.8 million b / d to 3.9 million b / d
U . S . MONTHLY BIOFUEL PRODUCTION millions barrels per day
between 2018 and 2020 in the STEO . The share of biomass-based diesel in diesel fuel increases from 3.6 % in 2018 to 4.5 % in 2020 . Demand for renewable diesel , which includes stand-alone production facilities as well as petroleum refiners that co-process renewable feedstocks in downstream units such as hydrotreaters , is expected to grow in 2020 . l FON
Principal contributors : Steve Hanson , Sean Hill
U . S . MONTHLY BIOFUEL NET TRADE millions barrels per day
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