“ The number one trend I see is that there will be too many choices . . . consumers will go back to what they know .”
11 Category Trends
“ The number one trend I see is that there will be too many choices . . . consumers will go back to what they know .”
– Jack Hendler , co-owner and brewer at Jack ' s Abby
tain wines with good aging potential .”
While rosé has become hip to Millennials , de Lorgeril reminds retailers that “ there is also an increase in the consumption of rosé by all consumers in general . Consumers between the ages of 40 and 77 are also starting to drink rosé .”
4 ) CRAFT BEER SLOWDOWN Craft beer still sells well . A significant amount ( 13 %) of respondents to our annual retailers poll said that the craft beer trend most impacts their business , while 18 % reported their customers most talking about craft beer . Yet there are signs of potential problems ahead .
After years of posting double-digit growth , the category has slowed to increases around 4-5 % in the last several years , according to the Brewers Association . Though it ’ s important to remember that even those single-digit gains continue to outpace the overall beer market , which has been flat or down 1-2 %.
What ’ s going on with microbrews ? Part of the problem is that consumers today tend to drink better , but less . And when they do drink , they ’ re less category-loyal than ever . Whiskey , in particular , has lured away many craft-beer drinkers into spending elsewhere .
And there ’ s the issue of microbrewery saturation . “ The number one trend I see is that there will continue to be too many choices ,” says Jack Hendler , co-owner and brewer at Jack ’ s Abby in Framingham , Mass . “ Consumers are more confused than ever with the amount of options — some that are over-the-top — that eventually people will go back to what they know .”
Which is to suggest that the way back to greater growth for craft beer may be eschewing crazier styles for brews more drinkable and approachable . After all , part of the appeal behind the New England IPA / hazy craze that has swept across the country is that these juice-forward products are smoother and less bitter than typical beers , broadening their appeal . ( Whether beer that doesn ’ t necessarily taste like beer is a good thing is an argument for another day .)
Mike Stevens , co-founder of Founders Brewery in Grand Rapid , MI ., believes that craft should take a page out of domestic beer and focus more on key brands .
“ You look at the beer industry as a whole , we ’ re all fighting over that same 15 % market share , and not that 85 %,” he says . To achieve broader appeal among mainstream consumers , “ We need to focus on a narrowing handful of brands , not 28 brands , and spending money supporting those core brands ,” Stevens says . “ We need to free this thing up a bit so that the momentum can get back to the positive numbers ."
5 ) PREMIUMIZATION The economy has improved . Unemployment is down . Many U . S . consumers ( Millennials in particular ) who were hurt by the Great Recession in the past decade have put that economically tight time in the rear-view mirror . Not that people are spending excessively , or recklessly , but their personal budgets now include more discretionary income .
“ It ’ s an affordable luxury ,” says Moore from SGWS of the premiumization rise . In the past 12 months , spirits priced $ 25 and up have increased in sales by 13.2 %, he says . This includes whiskey , vodka and tequila . “ People want to treat themselves ,” Moore adds . “ People are not going to buy a new car every time they do something good at work , but they will have that premium cocktail that they deserve .”
Or they ’ ll pick up that top-shelf bottle of bourbon they ’ ve been eyeing . The nice thing about splurging on premium spirits is that these items ( likely ) will last some time , and
WHAT ARE CUSTOMERS ASKING / TALKING ABOUT ?
45 % 40 % 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 %
41 %
Overall Wine
34 %
Bourbon / American Whiskey
18 %
Craft Beer
10 %
Locally Made Products
7 % 6 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 %
Rosé Wine
Source : The Beverage Dynamics 2019 State of the Industry Survey .
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