JohnMartin ' s in Coral Gables , FL , has more than 400 whiskeys on the menu . Alex Guerra , COO of the restaurant ' s ownership group , says , " the market ’ s still strong , but people are definitely being more thoughtful about what they ’ re buying ."
“ It was the perfect storm ,” says Schmier of Proof & Wood . “ Sales were up , demand was high , and supply chains were disrupted . That led to retailers overbuying whatever they could . Now there ’ s that overhang left over that we have to deal with . Overstocking in 2022 and 2023 is definitely a part of what we ’ re facing today .”
Stores simply have too much product now . When can we expect that to correct ?
“ I think that will sort itself out in about six to eight months ,” says Mandell of Whiskey House .
“ I think a number of those products have to go by the wayside ,” he adds , also alluding to the industry ’ s over-innovation . “ There will be a natural contraction of products and brands created during Covid .
EDUCATED CONSUMERS
While we ’ re not all stuck inside on our computers all day anymore like during the pandemic lockdowns , that period has left a lasting impact . Coupled with the bourbon boom , it ’ s led to consumers today being as educated as ever .
“ Let me tell you , people today know their stuff ,” says Guerra , of Breakwater Hospitality Group . “ I ’ ve been behind the bar for four decades , and I ’ ve never seen customers this clued-in . They ’ re not just ordering a drink ; they ’ re asking about the mash bill , the aging process , where the barrels come from — all of it . And honestly , I love it . It keeps me on my toes , and it makes for some great conversations .”
“ Some folks really know their stuff , while others are willing to experiment with taste profiles they wouldn ’ t have touched 20 years ago ,” he adds . “ Take the Old Fashioned , for example . People are now willing to try versions with chocolate , orange , cherry and more . Just look at how many bitter flavors are on the market today . Back in the day , the basic Angostura bitter was all anyone knew . They ’ ve got the knowledge , and they ’ re eager to learn more , which is why it ’ s so important for us to stay sharp and keep offering them something new .”
Agreeing with Guerra is Marchio of Hotel ZaZa Dallas .
“ Today ’ s consumers are more discerning than ever , thanks to the cocktail renaissance of the past decade ,” he says . “ Bar staff and patrons are also more knowledgeable with a wealth of information available online and in printed media , this has elevated the appreciation of the spirit .”
THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN WHISKEY
Consumers that with that level of education likely won ’ t just walk away from the whiskey category . It ’ s another reason why hardly anyone has called the current state of the whiskey the beginning of the end . Rather than thinking a bubble is about to burst , most industry folks see our present issues as a natural , rocky time of transition .
“ I think we are in for a turbulent couple of years ,” says Schmier of Proof & Wood . “ But as long as the neo-abolitionists don ’ t win , the category will be stronger in the long-term .”
Schmier ’ s joke makes a good point . Prohibition 2.0 is probably not in the offing . People will still drink whiskey , preferably of the premium variety . This suggests a sunnier future .
“ Is this a cyclical downturn or just a blip ?” asks Risen of The New York Times , during the Distill Ventures panel . “ I think it ’ s more the latter . I think people are confused in this economy . There are headwinds . Inflation is putting pressure on consumers . But the basic interest in whiskey will stick around . I think whiskey is here to stay , and individual players will win or lose based on where they ’ re positioned .”
Growth has come fast for Whiskey House , which offers sourced brands a state-of-the-art facility complete with the ability to control just about every facet of a spirit ’ s production .
“ We are still very bullish on the industry and its long-term prospects ,” says Mandell of Whiskey House . “ Short-term we have road bumps coming off of Covid with excess inventory in stores . Long term , the industry will remain strong .”
“ We see growth rates slowing and settling down into growth patterns more consistent with what we had before Covid ,” he adds . “ The fundamentals of the American whiskey market are still strong .” •
28 Beverage Dynamics • Fall 2024 www . beveragedynamics . com